Developing a Scenario
- Identify the focal issue or decision. It may be broad or narrow.
- Prepare the background by assessing the relevant social, economic, political and technological environments.
- Select critical indicators and search for future events, "identify primary driving forces".
- Analyze the past behavior of each indicator and reasons for prior changes. Choose two driving forces where there is high uncertainty about the future state.
- Forecast driving forces in multiple scenarios -- sometimes least favorable, most likely, and most favorable environmental scenarios are constructed.