Title: Understanding Decision Support Systems and Expert Systems
Author: E. Mallach
Introduction to Decision Support systems
Evolution of Information Systems
What is DSS?
DSS in the Information Systems Picture
Types of information
Information systems and decision support
Using computers for decision support
Specific DSS benefits
Improving personal efficiency
Expediting problem solving
Facilitating interpersonal communication
Promoting learning or training
Increasing organizational control
Why study DSS?
The plan of This Book
Human Decision Making Processes
What is a decision?
The decision process
The intelligence phase
The design phase
The choice phase
Types of decisions
How mangers make decisions
The rational manger
Subjective utility
Systematic decision making
Satisficing
Organizational and political decision making
The impact of psychological type on decision making
The Kepner-Tregoe decision making method
State the purpose of the decisions
Establish objectives
Classify according to importance
Generate alternatives
Evaluate alternatives against objectives
Tentatively, choose the best alternative
Assess adverse consequences
Make a final choice
Systems and Models
About systems
Information systems
Data flow diagrams
DSS as information systems
Models
Types of models
Simplification
Types of decision support systems
The DSS types
The seven DSS types
Applying the DSS to the types to airline yield management
Generalizing the DSS categories
Matching DSS to the Decision Type
Individual and group DSS
Matching benefits to DSS user community
Matching DSS to the decision maker’s psychological type
Introversion/Extroversion
Sensing/Intuition
Thinking/Feeling
Judgement/Perception
Combinations of preferences
Usage modes
Institutional versus Ad Hoc DSS
Building a Decision Support System
Defining the DSS architecture
DSS development project participants
The DSS development process
The SDLC approach
Prototyping
End User Development
DSS user interfaces styles
Factors to consider in use-interface design
User-interface styles
Hypertext/ Hypermedia
DSS software tools
DSS software categories
Standard packages
Specialized Tools and Generations
Database Management
Information retrieval packages
Specialized modeling languages
Statistical data analysis packages
Forecasting packages
Graphing packages
Programming languages for DSS
Third generation programming languages
Fourth generation programming languages
DSS Hardware and operating system platforms
The major options
DSS on the central corporate system
DSS with an information base on a separate system
DSS and Client/Server Computing
DSS on a stand-alone system
Open systems and DSS
Choosing a DSS hardware environment
Implementing DSS
The implementing stage
System conversion
Overcoming resistance to Change
Unfreezing
Moving
Refreezing
DSS implementing issues
Technical DSS implementation issues
User related implementation issues
Using the lists of issues
Ethical issues in DSS implementation
Representation Models
Discrete-event simulation models
The concept of discrete-event simulation
A discrete-event simulation example
Designing discrete-event simulation
Another simulation example
Complete simulation studies
Random and Pseudo random numbers
Statistic Simulation models
Queuing Models
Queuing theory concepts
A Queuing theory example
Generalizing the solution
Arrival and departure time distributor
Markov process models
The Markov process model concept
Computer calculations for Markov processes
Simulation, Queuing theory, and Markov process compared
Optimization
Testing Alternatives
Complete Enumeration
Random Search
The calculus approach
Linear programming
Numerical method
Hill Climbing
Box’s Method
Group DSS
What are group DSS?
Why are group DSS now?
Organizational reasons for group DSS growth
Technical reasons for group DSS growth
Putting the factors together
Group vs. Individual activities
Types of group DSS
GroupWare
Group DSS in use today
Electronic meeting systems
Work flow systems
Four group DSS products
Access technologies’s for comment
ON technology’s instant update
Lotus notes
Groupe Bull Flow PATH
Executive Information Systems
Who are the executives?
What is an executive information systems?
EIS characteristics
Genral Features
EIS Sponsor
EIS issues
Who is the user?
The EIS sponsor
Cost of the EIS
Management Resistance to the EIS
Employee Resistance to the EIS
From the EIS to ESS
Implementing EIS/ ESS
DSS Cases
MBTA passenger waiting time system
MediQual
JOCK
Options pricing with Black-Scholes
Geographic Information Systems
GIS example1: Yellow Freight
GIS example2: Metropolitan Life Insurance
Artificial Intelligence, Expert Systems, and DSS
About Artificial Intelligence
History of AI
The Turing Test
Artificial Intelligence today
Robotics
Machine vision
Natural language interpretation
Neutral Nets
Expert Systems
The basic idea
A simple expert system
Expert systems and DSS
Expert systems and Neutral Networks
Expert systems from the Outside
Pros and Cons of expert systems
Advantages of expert systems
Drawbacks of expert systems
Choosing a good expert system application
Problem related criteria
Expert related criteria
Keeping the criteria in perspective
The expert system human interface
Interface of an expert system
The user control and input interfaces
The user output interface
The explanation interface
Expert Systems from the inside
Variables
Production rules
Combining rules into knowledge based system
Inferencing methods
Strength and weaknesses of production rules
Frames
Semantic networks
Object oriented programming
Frame concepts
Reasoning within the frames
Beyond the individual frames
Predicate Calculus
Databases
Confidence factors
Where confidence factors come from?
Alternative approaches to confidential factors
Fuzzy Logic
Building an expert system
Hardware platforms for expert systems
Expert systems and microcomputers
Expert systems and minicomputers
Expert systems and mainframes
Software tools for expert systems
Packages
Shells
Languages
Knowledge Acquisition
What is Knowledge Acquisition
Finding the experts
Characteristics of the knowledge engineer
Starting the knowledge acquisition process
Working with the expert
From the expert to the computer
Introduction: An alternative to knowledge elicitation
Beyond the knowledge engineer
Combining expert systems and DSS
Expert System Cases
XCON
How XCON works
XCON performance
XCON benefits
Key roles in XCON
Lessons learned from XCON
Expert system calculates space shuttle payload configuration
Truck brake balancing
Pulling it together: Systems integration and the future of DSS
Combining the pieces
What is Systems Integration?
A Systems integration example
Types of integrated systems
Single System Visibility vs. Multiple Visibility
One hardware vs. Multiple hardware
One location vs. multiple locations
Trends in systems integration
The future of DSS