************************************************************ DSS News by D. J. Power June 17, 2001 -- Vol. 2, No. 13 A Bi-Weekly Publication of DSSResources.COM ************************************************************ Check the Vendor List at http://dssresources.com ************************************************************ Featured: * DSS Wisdom * Ask Dan! -- What is the technology adoption curve? Is it relevant to DSS? * What's New at DSSResources.COM * DSS News Stories ************************************************************ Each week, we have about 3000 unique visitors at DSSResources.COM. This newsletter has more than 550 subscribers from 50 countries. Please forward this newsletter to people interested in Decision Support Systems. ************************************************************ DSS Wisdom Steven Alter (1980) wrote, "It is quite possible that the "information utility" concept that was conceived in the 1960s will start to become a reality in the 1980s. Builders of DSSs will be able to purchase or lease standard modules that can be transferred immediately over phone lines into the memories of their personal computers. Both internal corporate data and proprietary commercial data will be available in the same manner. Some of the standard off-the-shelf modules will be report generators; others will be easily tailored query languages, statistical packages, graphical display packages, etc. As noted earlier, the key stumbling block to greater use and accepance of DSSs is that it simply takes too long and requires too much effort to bring the concept of a system or type of analysis to the point where it can be tried out realistically. The combined power of network technology plus personal computers may have a profound impact in alleviating much of this problem in situations where the data exist and the models are reasonably well understood and not too complex. The degree to which it will help when the data are not readily available or the models are not well understood is much more questionable." (p. 191) Alter, Steven. Decision Support Systems: Current Practice and Continuing Challenges. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., 1980. ************************************************************ Ask Dan! What is the technology adoption curve? Is it relevant to DSS? The technology adoption curve is a theory about how individuals and organizations behave in implementing innovative technologies. A quick examination of the framework shows some similarities to the product life cycle curve discussed in business marketing courses. The theory is however more sophisticated than a life cycle or a diffusion model. The underlying model of technology adoption identifies 5 types of adoptors of technology with very different interests and buying characteristics. The companies and individuals that are first to adopt a new technology are called innovators. The second type is known as the early adopters. The third type is called early majority, then the late majority adopters and, finally, the laggards. The technology adoption curve is a traditional bell curve with exponential growth in the beginning and a slowdown in adoptions occurring during the late majority period. When new technology is introduced, it is usually hard to get, expensive and imperfect. Over time, the technology's availability, costs and features improve to the point where a large population of users can benefit from adopting the technology. The innovators are technically oriented users and "visionary". The laggards are practical and conservative. The early adopters are seeking a competitive advantage. Productivity issues and conformity influence the early and late majority adopters. Some technology innovations reach a "dead end" early in the adoption cycle. These immature or premature innovations never become "killer applications" like the VisiCalc spreadsheet. To summarize: Innovators are enthusiasts who like technology for its own sake. Early Adopters have the vision to adopt an emerging technology and apply it to an opportunity that is important to them. Early Majority adopters are pragmatists who do not like to take the risks of pioneering, but are ready to see the advantages of tested technologies. They are the beginning of a mass market for the new technology. Late Majority adopters are also pragmatists and this group represents about one-third of available customers. This group dislikes "discontinuous innovations" and believes in tradition rather than progress. The late majority buy high-technology products reluctantly and do not expect to like them. Traditionalists (or laggards) don't really like technology. This group performs a "reality testing" service for the rest of us by pointing out the discrepancies between the day-to-day reality of a technology product and the claims made for it. This model is relevant to understanding the adoption of various decision support technologies. Model-driven DSS are probably at the late majority stage, but Web technologies have reinvigorated that type of DSS and changed its adoption curve. Data warehousing and OLAP are probably still in the hands of the early majority. Customer Relationship Management (CRM) may be at a dead end. Communications- Driven DSS are being adopted quickly. Knowledge-driven DSS are probably still in the early adoption stage. Document-driven DSS are evolving with the Web technologies. Don Norman is credited with first explaining the technology adoption curve model. See an example at of the application of the curve to microprocessor technology at http://www.startribune.com/digage/curve.htm Also check Moore, G. A. (1991) Crossing the Chasm, HarperBusiness, New York. Moore's model of technology adoption prescribes that a company can not expect to target a mass market directly with a technology innovation. Rather, the company must first target the early adopters. So what do you think? DOES THIS MODEL HOLD FOR INNOVATIVE DECISION SUPPORT TECHNOLOGIES? Will data visualization tools follow this curve? What about OLAP or data warehouses? simulation models and optimization? Web-based DSS? Please send me your comments. ************************************************************ What's New at DSSResources.COM 06/17/2001 Posted case example by DataBeacon Staff, "Databeacon Goes Back to the Future in San Francisco", DataBeacon, Inc., Spring 2001, URL DSSResources.COM/cases/telephia.html. ************************************************************ DSS News Stories - May 30 to June 13, 2001 06/13/2001 IDC Report states IBM is number one server company, outselling Sun by 60 percent. 06/11/2001 Cognos e-Applications provide immediate return on investment for J.D. Edwards customers. Check release. 06/07/2001 ClearCommerce uses Clementine data mining workbench in its fraud prevention solution. 06/06/2001 Business Objects won InfoWorld's Readers' Choice Award in Knowledge Management/Business Intelligence category. 06/06/2001 Broadvision and SAS announced a global strategic alliance at BVision 2001. 06/06/2001 Decisioneering releases upgrade to Crystal Ball 2000. 06/04/2001 iAnywhere to expand Java support to mobile and wireless devices. 05/31/2001 Sun announced that it is now in first place in NT workstation marketshare. 05/30/2001 Sun Microsystems and Informatica announced iForce Data Warehousing Reference Architecture. ************************************************************ This newsletter is available online at http://dssresources.com/newsletters/ . ************************************************************ DSS News is copyrighted (c) 2001 by D. J. Power. Please send your email to power@dssresources.com. 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