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DSS News
by D. J. Power
November 18, 2001 -- Vol. 2, No. 24
A Bi-Weekly Publication of DSSResources.COM
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Check the HydroBasin Case Study at DSSResources.COM
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Featured:
* DSS Wisdom
* Ask Dan! - What are the achievements, trends and challenges for
Decision Support Systems (DSS)?
* What's New at DSSResources.COM
* DSS News Stories
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This newsletter has more than 700 subscribers from
50 countries. Please forward this newsletter to people interested in
Decision Support Systems or suggest they visit DSSResources.COM.
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NOTE: Paper submissions due November 30, 2001 for IFIP WG 8.3 Conference
on Decision Support Systems (DSS), Decision Support in the Internet Age,
Cork, Ireland, July 4-7, 2002. Check http://afis.ucc.ie/dsiage2002/.
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DSS Wisdom
Richard Cyert and James March make the following generalizations.
"Individuals will treat estimates, information, and communication
generally as active parts of their environment. They will tend to
consider the decision for which the information is relevant, the
probable outcomes of various possible biases in information, and the
payoff to them of various possible decision results. They adjust the
information they transmit in accordance with their perceptions of the
decision situation." (p. 71)
Cyert, R. M., and J. G. March. A Behavioral Theory of the Firm.
Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1963.
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Ask Dan!
What are the achievements, trends and challenges for Decision Support
Systems (DSS)?
In late October, Manuel Mora, an Associate Professor in the Department
of Information Systems, Universidad Autonoma de Aguascalientes
(www.uaa.mx), Mexico, asked me to answer a brief e-interview (5
questions) about the achievements, trends and challenges of
Decision-making Support Systems (DMSS), including DSS, EIS and Expert
Systems. In my responses I tried to look broadly at the various types of
DSS, including Data-driven, Communications-driven, Knowledge-driven,
Document-driven and Model-driven DSS. The following are my
"off-the-cuff" responses to his questions.
1) What are the key achievements from the research and practice of DSS
in the last 20 years (1981-2001)?
The key achievements seem to be associated primarily with innovative
products like Expert Choice, GroupSystems, IFPS and PowerPlay. In some
ways the key achievements have come more from applied research and
practice than from traditional academic research. A number of
Professors have migrated to the commercial realm to pursue their ideas.
For example, researchers at a number of Universities made substantial
contributions to the development of Group DSS and their research
stimulated many studies related to the use of group technologies in
organizations.
Vendors have worked to implement DSS products using graphical user
interfaces and this has increased the accessibility of query and
reporting tools, decision models and expert system technologies.
Improved products have not however led to many new empirical studies
related to how DSS impact decision behavior or decision quality.
2) What are the research issues and practical problems that have yet to
be resolved in the field?
The research issues related to Decision Support still reads like a long
shopping list. A few questions standout for me including: How can
changes in the user interface impact the utility, perceived usefulness
and effectiveness of a specific category of decision support system? How
does the metadata available to a user impact the usefulness of a
data-driven DSS? How does interactive video and voice change the
dynamics and results of a synchronous meeting where some participants
are geographically dispersed?
As far as practical problems, they are perhaps fewer in number than 20
years ago, but more important because of the increased number of DSS
users and their evolved expectations. Managing and creating large
decision support databases remains a difficult task. Model management
and model reuse remain difficult tasks related to building Model-driven
DSS. Representing knowledge and capturing knowledge from experts in
useful domains for decision support is certainly not a trivial task.
Despite extensive commentaries, anecdotes and studies, building
Knowledge-driven DSS seems more like a myterious art than a routinized,
well-understood development methodology. Finally, communications
technologies have improved tremendously, but much needs to be done to
insure that systems are available when needed, perform satisfactorily
and that needed capabilities for interactive video are provided and
integrated with other decision support and collaboration tools.
3) What are the 3-5 characteristics for the next generation of DSS for
all management levels?
There won't be a single next generation for decision support. Some
characteristics that will appear in decision support systems include
greater customization, more integration with other information systems,
integration of interactive voice and video, voice driven user
interfaces, and more powerful representations including 3-D graphics and
more realistic, graphical business and process simulations. I'm looking
forward to "Roller Coaster Tycoon" or "Roller Coaster Designer" like
decision support simulations.
4) What are the core concepts that are essential for future DSS
architectures ?
>From my perspective the core concept is accessibility, but security
issues need to be addressed more systematically than they have been in
recent years. Also the issue of database design and backup is a problem
in terabyte sized warehouses that will only get worse. The issues
associated with distributed components (.NET) and the role of
application service providers (ASPs) will further complicate the design
of DSS.
5) What are the main trends and challenges in the development of DSS
from a practical perspective ?
The main trend seems to be vendor consolidation and the main challenge
remains innovation. The "older" Business Intelligence and Modeling and
Analysis vendors seem to be ready for a wave of mergers and other joint
activities. Innovation is still possible in this product space and the
example of Web Decision portals suggests that more innovation is both
possible and likely. There is certainly a need for new products in most
of the decision support categories.
Please send me your comments and I want to extend my good wishes to
Manuel Mora, Guisseppi Forgionne (UMBC), and Jatinder Gupta (Ball State)
as they complete their book of contributed articles on DMSS.
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What's New at DSSResources.COM
11/18/2001 Posted case by Young, James R., Geoff Rabone, Scott Akenhead
and Ed Gregr, HydroBasin: Relicensing Planning for Hydroelectric
Watersheds, Facet Decision Making, 2000, URL
DSSResources.COM/cases/hydrobasin.htm.
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DSS News Stories
11/15/2001 Surgical Information Systems announces "Staff Scheduling"
decision tool.
11/14/2001 IDC forecasts EMC to finish 2001 as World's #1 Provider of
external storage for fifth consecutive year.
11/13/2001 MathSoft releases Mathcad 2001i, which has enhanced security
and XP compatibility.
11/13/2001 Business Objects continues to lead in scalability, publishes
latest performance test results.
11/13/2001 Brio Software to support next-generation business
intelligence needs for Toyota.
11/12/2001 Databeacon 5.2 includes PageEnhancer API to integrate
interactive analytics into web pages.
11/12/2001 U.S. Fleet Services sees Comshare MPC as integral part of its
future dashboard of key business indicators.
11/12/2001 Industry-leading technology vendors endorse Cognos® Series 7.
11/12/2001 Cutting Edge Software releases Quickoffice Conference, a
real-time wireless application, at COMDEX.
11/09/2001 Tata Infotech develops alliance with MicroStrategy to enhance
efficiency and productivity in vertical industries.
11/08/2001 Crownpeak Technology develops calculator to determine ROI
from content and digital asset management.
11/06/2001 Samsung SDS America launches new version of REQUBE
intelligent database reporting tool.
10/31/2001 Decisioneering announces release of Crystal Ball® multimedia
training CD.
10/30/2001 Stratify launches flagship product platform.
10/29/2001 Entopia released Quantum 1.3 Software for Information
Management.
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